The Missouri Legislature has passed a plan to redraw the state’s congressional maps, potentially handing a Democrat-leaning seat to Republicans and giving the GOP a 7-1 district advantage. Partisan mid-decade redistricting, once very rare, could become the new normal, says an expert on voting rights at Washington University in St. Louis.
Travis Crum, a professor of law, is an expert on voting rights and election law. He has studied the role of racially polarized voting in redistricting. Here, he discusses the legality of the Missouri move and how more states could follow suit.
Is mid-decade redistricting in Missouri legal, in terms of the state’s constitution?
There is no federal prohibition against mid-decade redistricting. In its 2006 decision in LULAC v. Perry, the U.S. Supreme Court permitted Texas to redraw its congressional map. That case is distinguishable on the grounds that Texas was replacing a court-drawn map rather than a Legislature-drawn map, but that distinction will likely prove unpersuasive. Moreover, there is no federal prohibition against partisan gerrymandering.
There are potential claims under the Missouri Constitution, namely, that redistricting can only occur right after the census and that the new districts are not compact. We will have to wait and see what Missouri state courts have to say about those claims.
Could the move backfire on Missouri Republicans? How so?
It is possible that in a wave election year, such as 2006 or 2010, these districts might backfire and elect Democrats instead of Republicans. Indeed, one of the reasons cited by moderate Republicans in opposing a 7-1 map back in 2021 was this very possibility.
How do you see this movement proceeding? Will more and more states jump on board? Or will most wait until 2030?
There are rumblings that more states might join the mid-decade redistricting bandwagon. South Carolina and Maryland are high on the list. California’s referendum will help determine if Democrats are able to counterbalance Texas’ and Missouri’s mid-decade redistricting. If not, then another blue state is more likely to redraw their maps.
Now that the norm against mid-decade redistricting has eroded, we should not assume that 2030 redistricting will be limited to 2031 or 2032. We might be reverting to the late 1800s practice of states frequently engaging in mid-decade redistricting for partisan gain.
